Robert ReidLonely Planet author
Every week or so I get asked, ‘Is it safe to go to Mexico?’ I had always said, if you’re thoughtful about where you go, yes. But after my most recent trip there, I’m changing my answer… to a question:
Do you think it’s safe to go to Texas?
To be clear, violence in Mexico is no joke. There have been over 47,000 drug-related murders alone in the past five years. Its murder rate – 18 per 100,000 according to this United Nations Office on Drugs & Crime report – is more than three times the US rate of 4.8 per 100,000. Though Mexican tourism is starting to bounce back, Americans appear more reluctant to return than Canadians and Brits (5.7 million Americans visited in 2011, down 3% from 2010 – and, according to Expedia, more than four of five bookings were adults going without children). Many who don’t go cite violence as the reason.
What you don’t get from most reports in the US is statistical evidence that Americans are less likely to face violence on average in Mexico than at home, particularly when you zero in on Mexico’s most popular travel destinations. For example, the gateway to Disney World, Orlando, saw 7.5 murders per 100,000 residents in 2010 per the FBI; this is higher than Cancun or Puerto Vallarta, with rates of 1.83 and 5.9 respectively, per a Stanford University report (see data visualization here, summarized on this chart, page 21). Yet in March, the Texas Department of Public Safety advised against ‘spring break’ travel anywhere in Mexico, a country the size of the UK, France, Germany, Spain and Italy combined. Never mind that popular destinations like the Bahamas, Belize and Jamaica have far higher homicide rates (36, 42 and 52 per 100,000). Why the singular focus?
Before you nix Mexico altogether, consider these five things:
1. Mexico may be more dangerous than the US overall, but not for Americans.
According to FBI crime statistics, 4.8 Americans per 100,000 were murdered in the US in 2010. The US State Department reports that 120 Americans of the 5.7 million who visited Mexico last year were murdered, which is a rate of 2.1 of 100,000 visitors. Regardless of whether they were or weren’t connected to drug trafficking, which is often not clear, it’s less than half the US national rate.
2. Texans are twice as safe in Mexico, and three times safer than in Houston.
Looking at the numbers, it might be wise for Texans to ignore their Public Safety department’s advice against Mexico travel. Five per 100,000 Texans were homicide victims in 2010, per the FBI. Houston was worse, with 143 murders, or a rate of 6.8 – over three times the rate for Americans in Mexico.
3. And it’s not just Texas.
It’s interesting comparing each of the countries’ most dangerous cities. New Orleans, host city of next year’s Super Bowl, broke its own tourism record last year with 8 million visitors. Yet the Big Easy has ten times the US homicide rate, close to triple Mexico’s national rate.
Few go to Ciudad Juarez, a border town of 1.3 million that saw 8 to 11 murders a day in 2010 (accounts differ – CNN went with 8). It’s unlikely to ever be a tourism hostpot, but things have been quietly improving there. By 2011, CNN reported, the homicide rate dropped by 45%, and the first six weeks of this year saw an additional 57% drop, per this BBC story.
If that trend in Juarez continues all year, and it might not, the number of homicides would have dropped from over 3000 in 2010 to 710 in 2012. Meanwhile New Orleans’ homicide rate is increasing, up to 199 murders last year, equivalent to 736 in a city with the population of Juarez.
4. By the way, most of Mexico is not on the State Department’s travel warning.
The best of Mexico, in terms of travel, isn’t on the warning. The US warns against ‘non-essential travel’ to just four of Mexico’s 31 states (all in the north: Chihuahua, Coahuila, Durango and Tamaulipas). The warning goes on to recommend against travel to select parts of other states, but not including many popular destinations such as Puerto Vallarta, Mazatlan, the Riviera Nayarit, Cancun, Cozumel and Tulum.
Meanwhile, 13 states are fully free from the State Department’s warning, including Baja California Sur, Yucatan, Mexico City, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Guanajuato and others.
5. Malia Obama ignored the Texas advice.
Of all people, President Obama and first lady said ‘OK’ to their 13-year-old daughter’s spring break destination this year: Oaxaca. Then Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum made snide remarks over that, perhaps overlooking that Oaxaca state has a smaller body count from the drug war than his home state’s murder rate (Oaxaca’s 4.39 per 100,000 to Pennsylvania’s 5.2).
Oaxaca state, not on the US travel warning, is famed for its colonial city, Zapotec ruins and emerging beach destinations like Huatulco. Lonely Planet author Greg Benchwick even tried grasshoppers with the local mezcal (Malia apparently stuck with vanilla shakes.)
So, can you go to Mexico?
Yes. As the US State Department says, ‘millions of US citizens safely visit Mexico each year.’ Last year, when I took on the subject for CNN, one commenter suggested Lonely Planet was being paid to promote travel there. No we weren’t. We took on the subject simply because – as travelers so often know – there is another story beyond the perception back home, be it Vietnam welcoming Americans in the ’90s or Colombia’s dramatic safety improvements in the ’00s. And, equally as importantly, Mexico makes for some of the world’s greatest travel experiences – it’s honestly why I’m in this line of work.
So yes, you can go to Mexico, just as you can go to Texas, or New Orleans, or Orlando, or the Bahamas. It’s simply up to you to decide whether you want to.
Robert Reid is Lonely Planet’s New York–based US Travel Editor and has been going to Mexico since he was three (most recently to Chacala).
Living here 6 years now and I preach the same logic, but it rarely is understood. Do the gringos of GDL and the Tapatios a favor and keep that beach north of PV a secret 😉
A family member asked on Facebook whether it was safe to travel to Mexico … and after much deliberation blogged a much-commented on essay http://ronmader.wordpress.com/2012/04/09/cuernavaca
That said, I think the reticence toward tourism is due as much to perceived violence as to the fact that it remains difficult to get current info from Mexico about tourism.
Curious stat: There are 16 baseball teams in Mexico all of which have Facebook pages. There are 32 states in Mexico (including Mexico City not technically a state but let’s throw it in) and of these entities only 6 or so have real Facebook pages (not the profiles which have confused so many tourism officials). The model of tourism information distribution is woefully obsolete. Mexican baseball league insisted that all of the teams become social media-savvy. And tourism? Not so much …
Ask the Lonely Planet authors — how easy is it for you getting information for city and state tourism offices?
Until this situation improves visitation will either be stagnant or in decline which would be a shame.
it makes me crazy… I go several times a year and come back alive, and yet people still make nasty comments every time I go to Mexico. As I always say “unless you plan to join the cartel or become a high ranking member of the Mexican military or police force between now and your vacation.
These are ignorant people who dont travel, or go to Aruba every year to a timeshare and Im known as a world traveler. Wouldnt they acknowledge maybe I know something they dont? Fine – go to Aruba and leave Mexico to us.
That is a curious stat about Facebook, but who uses Facebook for destination research? I recently met the Mexican Tourism Board’s publicist at the NY Times Travel Show and told her she should be more active on the travel forums dispelling the myths about Mexico.
bummer – cant edit? I havent been here in years!
left off the end of the sentence “unless you plan… your vacation” chances of encountering cartel violence in Mexico is slim.
Thanks for a great fact-based perspective on the realities of travel risks. This is a topic that definitely warrants further examination. As a traveler, my main safety concern is not homicide. I suspect far more travelers’ experiences are tainted by lesser (but still significant) criminal activity such as assaults of all types, thefts, pickpocketing, shakedowns, or being taken advantage of by the odd unscrupulous merchant (also known as gringo pricing).
When in a foreign country, I am aware that I am less attuned to the nuances of social or business interactions, developing public events, and so on. At home, I have a pretty good sense of which dark street should be avoided, which bank machines are okay to use at night, or when a situation outside a bar is about to get nasty. These are more difficult to assess when one is less familiar with the language, culture, nonverbal clues and laws of a foreign land. Does this mean we should avoid going to new places? Well, isn’t that the reason we travel? It just means using common sense and perhaps being a little more cautious than at home (something which the all-inclusive booze-cruise crowds sometimes forget, occasionally at their own risk of becoming a statistic).
However, despite the excellent article, there is a long ways to go to counter the negative views of Mexico. The pervasive negative influence of slick news-as-entertainment media is hard to overcome. And your analysis also demands of the reader some basic numeracy and critical thinking, which the “heck no, I’m not gonna go to Mexico” crowd may not have. But you have to start somewhere! At least, you have reassured some travelers, and given others some good material to rebut the inevitable questions about safety in Mexico.
Thanks, Robert, for putting this is perspective.
But can you clarify one point where the perspective looks skewed to me. That’s when you talk about a murder rate of 2.1 per 100,000 Americans visiting Mexico vs. 4.8 per 100,000 for Americans at home.
It appears that the 4.8 is the murder rate for 52 weeks in the U.S., but the 2.1 rate is for maybe one week — whatever the average stay is — in Mexico. That would come to an annualized rate of more than 100 murders per 100,000 American visitors. Not so comforting.
I hope that’s wrong — but is it?
^ Exactly. I agree that the risks in Mexico are overblown, especially in areas away from the border. But your statistics are misleading, obviously an American is less likely to be murdered in Mexico if they only spend a vacation there versus the place they live every day. You have to adjust for time.
I live in Mexico and the crime rate where I live is MUCH lower than where I came from in the US (Oregon). No robberies, no murders, no burglaries, no crime, period!
The meme that it is extremely dangerous in Mexico isn’t so much a travel warning as it is racism. I note that it’s Republican-controlled Texas that is telling it’s citizens to not go to Mexico. This, of course plays into the whole “illegal alien” as well as the “reconquista” themes that permeate political rhetoric from the right in the US.
If we can all think of Mexicans (and all persons who originate from south of the US border are seen as and treated as “Mexicans” by those who share this racist mindset) as dangerous automatic rifle-toting, drug-running banditos, we can keep the xenophobic racism current going. That way, there’s always someone else to blame for underfunded public schools and services.
I live in Mazatlan 6 months per year. Never have I felt in danger, until this year. I was robbed 3 times, once at gun point. This could happen in any large city in the U.S. It WILL NOT keep me from going back. I hope they get control of the petty banditos. The drug cartels have nothing to do with petty theft. They are Mexicans killing corrupt police or other cartels that get into their drug operations.
ifeelfine makes an excellent point regarding the statistic that 2.1 of every 100,000 Americans that visited Mexico last year died. It would serve us better to compare that number with, say, the number of Americans who die while visiting other countries, like England or France. Or the number of foreign visitors who died while visiting the U.S. I hope the author responds to the question.
Thanks for a balanced article to counteract the many ignorant ones that often prevail in the media regarding Mexico.
I have lived in Mexico for 71 years on and off – my family arrived here from England in 1847. Six generations have been born here. My husband and I now spend winter months in this country and feel perfectly safe in our Mexican neighbourhood and travelling throughout much of the country. Our children and grandchildren visit us on an annual basis from Canada. We have visited ‘magic towns’, cities, parks, Gulf and Pacific coasts, lakes, explored archeological sites and the charms of colonial architecture and the list goes on.
As in any country – one has to be sensible and avoid certain areas. It is a very sad time with the drug cartel violence (which affects most countries now-a-days), but this does not impact those of us who live here and avoid such involvement.
Thank you for presenting a more truthful aspect to this wonderful country which we love dearly.
IMO, impressions are everything when considering a travel or retirement destination. Whether the impressions have been gleaned via media/State/opinionated spin, or by 1st hand experience, or by in-depth investigating through trusted peer-reviewed sources are important.
I would propose a publicly-accessible *map mash-up* showing simply: tourist/ex-patriot rate of homicide in every State. So, why not start with Mexico? Compare this with bordering USA, and Belize, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua & Costa Rica (for starters). Color-rank low per/100,000 tourist homicide rates pale green, to high rates dark red (this has cartographic user significance I won’t go into here). Let the data from trusted sources tell the story.
The important map interpretation issue, of course, is: data resolution. So, map the rates at the highest Departmental resolution possible: at the Municipal scale. This map-mash-up could then be linked within every travel-related web-site at the Global scale: like Lonely Planet; and at the State scale: like Planeta …etc.
Concluding: no more guess-work. The data is up-dated at the refresh level of the various States releases.
2.1 murders per 100,000 visitors??? Really???
I cannot believe that such an egregious error was left unchecked by everyone except for ifeelfine.
The murder rate proposed by the author serves as the basis for his entire thesis. However he assumes that Americans remain in Mexico for 52 weeks as opposed to maybe 1 week being the average trip to Mexico. Thus, the true rate extrapolated over a year is over 100 murders per 100,000 visitors… Or about 15 times more dangerous than Houston!!!
How did his editors possibly let him get away with this?!?
Davanderman, thanks for your comments. I totally get how you might have that reaction. I had the same!
Actually the editor and I did talk about this at quite some length before publishing the article. And how we could use the fact that 2.1 per 100,000 American visitors were killed in Mexico.
Turns out, murder is not something that occurs with statistical regularity. So there is no telling whether that number, of 2.1 per 100,000, would increase or not if Americans stayed longer in Mexico. This is apparently an example of ‘a priori knowledge,’ the philosophical distinction of acquiring knowledge without experience. While it’s likely if Americans spent twice as long in Mexico, the number of murders would increase. But you cannot assume — and likely it would never prove to be correct — that double the Americans would be killed.
(Yes, my head is spinning over all that too — my editor was the one who pulled the ‘a priori’ card on this, I hadn’t known about it.)
I hope this is of some help. I understand why you raised the question — it’s one of the reasons why the headline is phrased as a question!
And I still wonder how many people going to the Bahamas realize it has twice the homicide rate as Mexico?
Thanks for reading so closely.
-Robert Reid
Come to Mexico i have been here 30 years and never a proublem its safer then the usa buy far…..
IRONWOON
My family and I go to El Gulfo or Ensenada many times a year. The last trip down we stayed in the motor home in town at one of the local fisherman’s houses. The trip was great, each night they brought by some of the catch of the day and stayed to chat for a bit. My brother made the comment that he felt much safer and more at home there than he ever did living in Apache Junction (east of Phoenix). Any where in the world that you go and look for trouble, you will find it!
Great article, great to have this kind of positive things with plenty of credibility not like brainwashed media, mostly from the US. It’s sad that the perception of traveling to Mexico and much of the thoughts towards my country’s reputation is driven by that misleading bad press and also to many people that have not been that fortunate to travel outside their area. I don’t deny that we have a lot of problems, a country where above than 50% live in poverty, to be neighbor of the worlds #1 consumer market brings its challenges. I have been fortunate to travel the world and I can say that we aren’t as bad as US media tells. I was attacked in a “peaceful” street in Barcelona, injured and end up at local hospital, or last year in Houston suffered a car window breaking and had laptop, ipod, and stuff robbed. So we better not judge at all, we must value more what we have regardless of anything and welcome anyone and share. Dividing cannot generate anything good. Every country has good and bad, it’s up to us to choose.
Thanks for the post i think it was not much safe for americans to stay in mexico….thanks alot..
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My wife and I reside full time in Mexico for ten years. The crime rate against gringos has been next to nothing and if you are careful, use common sense, security here is about the same as anywhere else. Don’t show wealth, drive a luxury car, flash expensive jewelry or otherwise paint a target on yourself. Learn the language and customs, make eye contact with everyone and obey their laws. Common sense applies to you wherever you live or travel.
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